Mark F Cancian

Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition-and the high-level threat that it poses-gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly likely in a future great power conflict. This study, therefore, examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in a conflict's initial...